So will they do a deal?
I read today (13th Dec) a piece from the Daily Mirror that, if taken seriously, would lead you to utter despair about our future. Under the headline 'Supermarkets to stockpile food ready for three month shortage as no-deal Brexit looms' which said that 'supermarkets have been warned to stockpile food' without stating who gave the warning, and that food producers have warned of a shortage of vegetables for three months again without attributing the warning to anyone at all. 'A senior consultant' said there was a conversation a week ago when ministers said 'prepare for no deal'. The name of this senior consultant remains a mystery.
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At the opposite end of the editorial spectrum, a recent article on the Institute for Government's site headlined 'UK threats to break international law make a Brexit deal even more difficult' has in my view got it completely wrong. It makes a Brexit deal more likely. Let me explain.
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You can't negotiate in the fullest sense of the word unless you are prepared to get up and walk away or at least unless the other side believes that you are prepared to get up and walk away.
If you're not – it's not a negotiation. It's more of an acceptance or perhaps even a surrender.
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In my opinion, this is why Theresa May failed in her concerted and almost heroic efforts to secure an agreement. The heart of the clergyman's daughter was with the European ideal, and she wore that heart on her sleeve as she tried desperately to keep everybody on board and to accommodate an impossible range of views. The point is that during this time, nobody thought that she would slam her folder closed, stand at the table, say that she had gone as far as she could go and that there seemed little point in continuing before wheeling round and leading her team out the door. It simply isn't the way she conducts herself.
Enter Boris Johnson, stage right. A very different animal. He had campaigned to leave, and won a thumping majority with the simplistic message of 'Get Brexit Done'. This was not a remainer trying to make the best of a bad situation. He made no secret of a belief that the WTO terms would suit an outward-looking Britain perfectly adequately, and whilst he would prefer to strike a deal with the EU, it most certainly would not be at any cost. He has made fishing a major issue even though it barely registers in terms of GDP, and roundly rejected the level playing field proposals which his predecessor found 'workable'. Meanwhile, the UK has signed or ratified 31 trade agreements with 86 countries, leaving the EU negotiators in no doubt whatsoever that the UK would find a new path for itself. Indeed - it had already started. Add to this the notorious Internal Market Bill which would see the UK breaking international law, and the negotiators on the other side of the desk were left in no doubt that Johnson and his team are quite prepared to pack up and leave.
The EU team find themselves dealing with a completely different team and a leader who, like the fictional Detective Columbo, is quite happy for people to think of him as an incompetent buffoon. It could hardly have been more of a departure from Theresa May's approach, and it is as cheap and easy a jibe as it is mistaken.
I've written this because I keep having this conversation with my left-of-centre friends who increasingly seem to follow the oh-so predictable 'if it's being done by the Tories, it must be either bad or evil' cliché, and that Brexit will be a complete and utter disaster. They have bought the apocalyptic nonsense wholesale, and will not be shifted from it. The notion that all the major parties genuinely want the best for the country but have different ideas on how to achieve it escapes them. Only they have all the right on its side, all the moral high ground and all the answers - and if you don't agree with that, you're at best naive and misled, at worst “Tory scum”.
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I've been involved in and conducted some tricky and lengthy negotiations, and I'm fairly certain I see what's happening, unlike the Institute for Government who in my view have got it completely and utterly arse-upwards. It is clear they are academics, few of whom have negotiated anything other than a house purchase. Time will tell if that august institute is worthy of its name of course, but unlike them I predict a deal, and would go so far as to say it will be a good one – and by that I mean good for the EU as well as the UK. There will no doubt be some theatrics and posing, each side will have to play to its electorates, but come Yuletide, I think we will have a deal.